Kenyan women now bear an average of 3.1 children each, down from 3.4 in 2022 and 4.9 in 2003. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported the figures in the 2025/26 Kenya Mini Demographic and Health Survey, fieldwork for which began in 2025. The rate has fallen in every survey since 2003, and the decline totals 1.8 children per woman.
What the fertility rate measures
The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her childbearing years if she bore children at today’s age specific rates. KNBS calculated it from pregnancy histories of women aged 15 to 49 for the three years before the survey.
KNBS said the number of children a woman bears depends on her age at first birth, the gap between births and her fecundity.
“Postponing first births and extending the interval between births have played a role in reducing fertility levels in many countries,” it said. The median gap between births has widened from 42.1 months in 2022 to 46.3 months.
Fertility now peaks at ages 25 to 29, at 161 births per 1,000 women. In earlier surveys the peak fell at ages 20 to 24.
Rural women still bear more children
Rural women average 3.6 births and urban women average 2.6. The rural rate has fallen from 5.4 in 2003, a drop of 1.8 children. The urban rate has fallen from 3.3, a drop of 0.7.
Education and income track the same split. Women with no schooling average 5.4 children, against 2.7 for women with education beyond secondary school.
Women in the poorest fifth of households average 4.5 children, against 2.3 in the richest fifth.
Mandera records the most births, Embu the fewest
Thirty one of Kenya’s 47 counties have a rate above the national 3.1.
| County | Births per woman |
|---|---|
| Mandera | 6.8 |
| Wajir | 5.8 |
| Tana River | 5.7 |
| Turkana | 5.6 |
| Garissa | 5.3 |
| Embu | 2.2 |
| Kiambu | 2.3 |
| Mombasa | 2.3 |
| Nairobi | 2.6 |
| Kericho | 2.6 |
| Kirinyaga | 2.7 |
| Tharaka Nithi | 2.7 |
Teenage births decline, with wide county gaps
Births to girls aged 15 to 19 fell from 73 to 63 per 1,000. The share of girls in that age group who have ever been pregnant fell from 14.8% to 11.9%. The share rises with age, from 2% at age 15 to 27% at age 19.
County figures vary widely. West Pokot (25%), Migori (23%) and Kajiado (20%) record the highest shares. Nyeri (2%), Isiolo (3.4%) and Makueni (3.7%) record the lowest. The survey notes that Nyeri’s figure rests on 33 girls, so treat county comparisons with care.
Embu shows a contrast. It has the lowest fertility rate in the country, yet 18.6% of its girls aged 15 to 19 have been pregnant.
How pregnancies end
Of all pregnancy outcomes in the three years before the survey, 89% ended in live births, 9% in miscarriages and 1% in stillbirths. Induced abortions made up less than 1%.
KNBS said induced abortions are likely underreported because of stigma and legal restrictions. Miscarriage rises with age, from 7% of pregnancies among women under 20 to 13% among women aged 35 to 44. Khusoko has reported on access to abortion among married women.
More births in hospitals, fewer child deaths
Health facilities handled 91% of live births in the two years before the survey, up from 88% in 2022 and 39% in 2003. The public sector delivered 66% of all births.
Deaths of children under five fell to 37 per 1,000 live births, from 41 in 2022 and 115 in 2003. Maternal care is also a focus of county programmes, such as the M-Pesa Foundation and Amref partnership in Homa Bay.
Demand for family planning among married women stands at 76%, and 61% of that demand is met. Khusoko has tracked the population base behind these rates since the census showed Kenya at 47.6 million people.
Fertility is falling nationwide, but the counties with the highest rates still average more than twice the national figure. Health planning, school places and household budgets will depend on which of those two trends moves faster.
