Kenya’s economy expanded 4.6% in 2025, barely changed from the revised 4.7% recorded in 2024, according to official data released on Wednesday by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
The figure falls short of the finance ministry’s earlier estimate, though KNBS described growth as broad-based, with every major sector of the economy contributing to the expansion.
Agriculture, construction, and mining and quarrying all recorded positive performances during the year. Services remained the dominant force in the economy, accounting for 55.0% of GDP, while agriculture contributed 23.2% and industry 16.3%. The shilling strengthened against the dollar, trading at KSh 129.3 per USD in 2025 compared to KSh 134.8 in 2024, and inflation eased to 4.1% from 4.5% the previous year.
GDP Growth Rates, 2021 to 2025
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| GDP Growth (%) | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% |
| 2025 | 4.6% |
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Economic Survey 2026
What the Forecast Says About 2026
KNBS projects GDP growth of 4.9% in 2026, a slight acceleration from last year’s pace. The bureau tied the outlook to continued momentum in services, infrastructure investment, and digital financial activity. Mobile money transactions alone reached KSh 21.3 trillion in value during 2025, and broadband subscriptions grew to 53.8 million users, reflecting the depth of digital penetration in the economy.
The projection carries a serious caveat. KNBS warned that Sub-Saharan Africa remains highly exposed to external shocks, citing in particular the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran as a source of regional vulnerability. Geopolitical disruptions of this nature tend to ripple through commodity markets, fuel prices, and investor confidence, all of which carry direct consequences for Kenya’s import bill and fiscal position.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators at a Glance
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| GDP (KSh Trillion) | 15.0 | 16.2 | 17.6 |
| GDP Per Capita (USD) | $2,549 | ||
| Inflation (%) | 7.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| KSh / USD Exchange Rate | 139.8 | 134.8 | 129.3 |
| Current Account Balance (KSh Bn) | -423.3 | -285.5 | -373.3 |
| Public Debt (KSh Trillion) | 11.4 |
Source: KNBS Economic Survey 2026
Sector by Sector: Where Growth Came From
Agriculture
Agriculture expanded 2.8% in real terms, a slowdown from 4.3% in 2024, shaped by mixed weather across the country. Long rains supported production in several regions, but below-average short rains cut output for rain-fed crops. Sugarcane production fell sharply by 24.7% to 7.1 million tonnes, and green leaf tea dropped 7.8% to 2.5 million tonnes. Maize, coffee, fresh horticultural produce, and milk all moved in the opposite direction, recording gains. The value of marketed agricultural production reached KSh 706 billion, up 2.3% on the year.
Construction and Infrastructure
Construction remained a key driver of economic activity, supported by the government’s Affordable Housing Programme and sustained infrastructure spending. Cement consumption climbed to 10.3 million metric tonnes in 2025, the highest in five years, up from 8.5 million tonnes in 2024. The government committed KSh 168.7 billion to roads and KSh 116.7 billion to housing in 2025/26. Employment in the sector stood at 238,300 workers.
Tourism
Tourist arrivals grew 6.2% to 2.55 million visitors in 2025. Nearly half came for holiday, and Africa remained the largest source market at 588,800 departing visitors, ahead of Europe at 477,500. Hotel bed occupancy rose 12.6% to 11.6 million bed-nights, with Kenyans accounting for 45% of occupied beds, a figure that underscores the growing role of domestic tourism in sustaining the sector.
Trade and the Current Account
Kenya’s current account deficit widened from KSh 285.5 billion in 2024 to KSh 373.3 billion in 2025, driven by higher import spending on industrial machinery, motor vehicles, and iron and steel. Exports reached KSh 967.9 billion, led by tea at KSh 187.1 billion, cut flowers at KSh 103.3 billion, and fresh vegetables and fruit at KSh 99.8 billion. China remained the dominant import source at KSh 671.2 billion. Diaspora remittances provided meaningful support to the balance of payments, totalling KSh 661.2 billion during the year.
Employment Grows but Informality Persists
Total wage employment in the modern sector reached 3.315 million in 2025, a 3.1% increase from 3.214 million the previous year. Manufacturing employed the largest share of private sector workers at 366,600, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing at 311,800. Yet formal employment accounts for only 16.2% of the working population. The remaining 83.8% work in informal arrangements, a ratio that signals the limits of official employment statistics as a measure of livelihoods for most Kenyans.
The Bigger Picture
Kenya’s GDP of KSh 17.6 trillion in 2025 put per-capita income at $2,549 in dollar terms. Within the East African Community, Kenya grew at 4.6%, below the bloc-wide average of 5.6%. Rwanda led EAC growth at 7.1%, with Tanzania at 6.0% and Uganda at 6.4%. South Sudan topped the regional table at 24.3%, though that figure reflects recovery from a low base rather than structural momentum.
Public debt reached KSh 11.4 trillion by June 2025, split between KSh 5.4 trillion in domestic obligations and KSh 6.0 trillion in external debt. External debt servicing consumed 31.1% of export earnings in 2025, up from 21.2% in 2024, a trajectory that policymakers will need to manage carefully if the 4.9% growth target for 2026 is to translate into lasting gains for households and businesses.
