A sovereign credit rating is an independent assessment of a country’s creditworthiness
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Rwanda’s long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘B+’ from ‘B’, and maintained its outlook at “stable”.
“The outlook is stable because we expect Rwanda will continue to achieve above-average real GDP growth over the medium term, balanced against risks of fiscal slippages and rising government debt,” according to S&P.
The firm says Rwanda has demonstrated strong GDP growth and above-average growth trends per capita than peers. “We expect high growth will be driven primarily by public investment, which will likely result in sizable fiscal deficits and rising government debt levels.”
The country’s’ economic growth forecast of 7.80% is projected to be the fastest in the East African region in 2019.
However, the rating may be lowered if the government’s investment program significantly increases external financing requirements and external debt above its current projections.
Commercial Bank of Africa’s Monthly Economic Report – August 2019, state that, “Although positive in the long run, a weakening external trade environment could weigh on export revenues as weak demand undermines pricing. Meanwhile, increased local production of previously imported goods could also negatively impact import revenues. The slowdown in revenues could see the fiscal deficit to 6.00% of GDP from 5.50% a year earlier.”