The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has revised its 2024 economic growth forecast downward to 5.1% from 5.4%, citing a slowdown in various sectors during the second quarter.
Despite this, the CBK remains optimistic about the country’s overall economic performance, highlighting the continued strength of key service sectors, agriculture, and exports.
“The resilience of key service sectors, robust performance in agriculture and improved exports are expected to continue supporting growth. This outlook is subject to risks including the escalation of geopolitical tensions,” said the CBK in an emailed statement Tuesday.
Kenya 2024 Growth Projections |
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| No. | Organization | 2024 GDP Projections |
| 1 | International Monetary Fund | 5.3% |
| 2 | National Treasury | 5.5% |
| 3 | World Bank | 5.2% |
| 4 | Fitch Solutions | 5.2% |
| 5 | Cytonn Investments Management PLC | 5.4% |
| Average | 5.3% | |
Source: Cytonn Research
A recent CEOs Survey and Market Perceptions Survey conducted by the CBK revealed sustained optimism among businesses regarding the economic outlook for the next 12 months.
This confidence is rooted in the stable macroeconomic environment, including low inflation, a stable exchange rate, and anticipated interest rate cuts.
Additionally, the strong performance of agriculture, the resilience of the services sector, and improving global growth prospects have contributed to this positive sentiment.
However, businesses have expressed concerns about “the high cost of doing business, weak consumer demand, and the burden of high credit costs.”
Kenya’s general business environment deteriorated in Q3’2024, with the average Purchasing Manager’s Index for the last three months coming at 47.8, compared to 48.0 recorded in a similar period in 2023.
The deterioration was mainly on the back of anti-finance bill protests which paralyzed economic activity in the month of July, with July PMI coming in at a low of 43.1.
