Kenya Exports Estimated to Hit Ksh 1.2 Trn by 2030: Future of Trade 2030

Future of Trade 2030: Trends and markets to watch by Standard Chartered – projects that Kenyan exports will grow at an average annual rate of more than 7 per cent hitting USD 10.2 bn by 2030.

The Port of Mombasa, Kenya

Kenyan exports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 7 per cent hitting Ksh 1.2 trillion (USD 10.2 billion) by 2030.

As per Standard Chartered titled Future of Trade 2030: Trends and markets to watch, the growth of exports is being driven by the expansion of the manufacturing sector and strengthening of its regional trade relation.

“It is focusing on developing the required infrastructure and investing in projects for railway, road, and port development,” part of the research reads.

In addition, “Uganda and the USA will continue to be the leading export corridors for Kenya, accounting for 11 per cent and 9 per cent of total exports in 2030, respectively. Pakistan is a fast-growing export corridor with 10.7 per cent average growth per year  from 2020 to 2030.”

The research also found that 10 per cent of global corporates currently do or plan to manufacture in Kenya within the next five to 10 years.

Provisional data from the Central Bank of Kenya in January, exports recovered to post an 11.7 per cent growth in 2021 to Ksh.765.2 billion ($6.739 billion). Exports rose from Ksh.685 billion ($6.033 billion) in 2020 as the economy re-emerged from the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Global exports are expected to grow by 70 per cent from USD 17.4 trillion to USD 29.7 trillion over the next decade. The report reveals 13 markets that will drive much of this growth, identifies major corridors and has five trends shaping the future of global trade.

Sectors that will dominate exports in 2030

  1. Agriculture and food
  2. Metals and minerals
  3. Textile and apparel

Global overview: 13 markets driving future trade growth

MarketExports in 2030 (USD)Average annual growth rateKey corridors
Bangladesh51bn7%India, UAE, USA
Hong Kong939bn5.7%Japan, Mainland China, USA
India563bn7.6%Hong Kong, Singapore, USA
Indonesia347bn8.1%India, Mainland China, USA
Kenya10bn7.7%Pakistan, Uganda, USA
Mainland China5,022bn7.1%Germany, Malaysia, Vietnam
Malaysia498bn8.3%India, Mainland China, Singapore
Nigeria112bn9.7%India, Indonesia, Mainland China
Saudi Arabia354bn7.6%India, Mainland China, South Korea
Singapore687bn7.4%India, Mainland China, Malaysia
South Korea971bn7.1%India, Mainland China, Vietnam
UAE298bn6.1%India, Mainland China, Singapore
Vietnam535bn7.0%India, Mainland China, USA

The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC, is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030. Global trade will be reshaped by the following key trends.

  • The wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices
  • A push for more inclusive participation
  • Greater risk diversification
  • More digitization
  • Rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets

Almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.

The research also found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. However, while almost 90% of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a top-three priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.

Commenting on the report, Makabelo Malumane, Head Transaction Banking Standard Chartered said, “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalization is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents.”

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