As Kenya reels from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the country’s economy to shrink by0.3 percent since 1993 according to its latest economic update.
The report, ‘Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook Update, June 2020: A Cautious Reopening” however, said the economy will expand 4 percent in 2021 from an initially projected 6.1 percent.
Among the larger economies:
- South Africa: activity is projected to contract by 8.0 percent in 2020 (by 2.2 percentage points deeper compared to April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa) as the strictest Stage 5 lockdown was extended until end-April and relaxed gradually in May and June, while policy measures lent support. The economy is projected to rebound by 3.5 percent in 2021 on the back of improving business activity and confidence as the authorities make progress in implementing policies to boost growth and stabilize public debt.
- Nigeria: the economic contraction is projected to deepen to 5.4 percent in 2020 (down by 2.0 percentage points from the April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: SubSaharan Africa) as the country was hit hard by plummeting oil prices, lower oil production quota and declining activity. Growth is projected to recover to 2.6 percent in 2021 with rising oil prices and increasing production.
- Angola: activity is projected to continue to fall for a fifth year, with GDP reduction of 4.0 percent in 2020 (2.6 percentage points worse compared to the April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa), reflecting declines in oil production and prices, tightening credit conditions, and declining domestic business activity. Firmer oil prices and policy support measures help reinvigorate economic growth to 3.2 percent in 2021.
- Ethiopia: growth is projected at 1.9 percent in the 2020 fiscal year (FY2020), which is 1.3 percentage points lower compared to the April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa and then to stall completely in FY2021, as the negative effect of lockdowns has been larger than anticipated.