Mozambique claimed the top spot in Standard Bank’s Africa Trade Barometer (ATB) for 2025, leaping from third place in August 2024 to first.
Three quantitative factors drove the ascent: currency stability — the metical averaged 63.9 MZN per USD over three years — strong export performance as a share of GDP, and Foreign Direct Investment inflows ranked third among all ten surveyed markets, buoyed by the multi-billion-dollar Coral South and Coral Norte Floating LNG projects.
Yet the headline ranking masks a deeply uncomfortable reality. In the Survey Trade Barometer, which captures what businesses actually experience on the ground, Mozambique ranked ninth out of ten. The Bank of Mozambique engineered its exchange-rate stability through aggressive intervention, tripling the mandatory foreign-currency reserve requirement from 11.5% to 39.5% in June 2025 and forcing exporters to convert 50% of foreign revenues into meticais. Those measures triggered a foreign exchange backlog reportedly exceeding $700 million, leaving small businesses unable to pay international suppliers and forcing many to suspend operations entirely.
The FDI figures carry a similar caveat. Capital flowing into the FLNG projects lands on Mozambique’s balance sheet but flows directly to foreign contractors, notably Samsung Heavy Industries, which constructs the production vessels in South Korean shipyards. Local manufacturers and service providers see little of it.
South Africa slipped to second, Namibia to third. Kenya fell to seventh, Zambia to tenth. Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda held their positions at fifth, fourth and ninth respectively, while Angola climbed to eighth and Ghana to sixth.
Business Confidence Recovers — Unevenly
Average business confidence across the ten markets jumped to 65 from 59 in August 2024, the strongest reading in the survey’s history. Ghana led the recovery, surging to 71, after the government removed the 1% Electronic Transfer Levy in April 2025 and slashed the monetary policy rate to 21.5% by September. Nigeria matched Ghana’s score of 71 following its removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list in October 2025, which reopened correspondent-banking channels and eased capital inflows.
A representative from the Lagos State Ministry of Commerce, Cooperative, Trade and Investment captured the mood: “The government is fashioning out policies to ensure that there are no unnecessary bottlenecks and also removing bureaucracies… to ensure that there is a bit more development within the business space.”
South Africa posted the sharpest single-country improvement, with its government support index climbing from 55 to 71. Businesses credited the stabilisation of the national power grid, new ship-to-shore cranes at Durban’s Pier 2, the passing of the One-Stop Border Post Bill in November 2025, and early efficiency gains along freight-rail corridors under Operation Vulindlela. Analysts at The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance described the government’s approach as one that “integrates export promotion with industrialisation… to ensure that the country moves beyond exporting natural resources by incentivising the processing of goods locally.”
Zambia moved in the opposite direction. Its confidence index fell to 52 as El Niño-induced load shedding — at peak, up to 21 hours per day — persisted into mid-2025, gutting industrial output and multiplying energy costs tenfold for businesses forced onto alternative power sources. The government compounded the pain by introducing a 1% Minimum Alternative Tax on turnover. The fiscal pressure was bluntly described by a representative from the Zambia Revenue Authority: “Taxation remains a major hindrance to business profitability since import taxes and duties are often so stretched that after compliance, a business owner is often left with zero profit.”
Across all ten markets, 83% of surveyed businesses expect higher revenues over the next three years, citing anticipated sales growth, expanded production and improved economic conditions as the primary drivers.
Infrastructure: Meaningful Progress, Persistent Gaps
Businesses reported the strongest infrastructure improvements since the survey launched. Power-supply ratings rose to 2.5 out of 5 from 2.0 in August 2024. Tanzania led the gains after the Tanzania Electric Supply Company commissioned the final turbine of the 2,115-megawatt Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant in February 2025, doubling national capacity. The impact was felt immediately at business level. “Businesses were previously affected by unreliable electricity,” one Nigerian respondent told surveyors. “Now, with reliable power, business runs smoothly, and investor morale has improved.”
Telecommunications recorded the highest average infrastructure rating at 3.0, up from 2.7, with Tanzania (3.8), Kenya (3.6), Namibia (3.5) and South Africa (3.4) leading the field. Road ratings climbed to 2.3 from 1.9; Tanzania’s landmark 3.2-kilometre Kigongo-Busisi Bridge, opened in May 2025, cut a two-hour Lake Victoria ferry crossing to a four-minute drive. South Africa earmarked ZAR 940 billion for primary transport corridors and opened the upgraded N3 Cato Ridge–Ashburton section — the country’s critical Durban-Gauteng freight artery — in October 2025.
Port ratings rose to 2.5 from 2.3, with South Africa recording the greatest improvement after Transnet commissioned four new ship-to-shore cranes at Durban’s Pier 2. Rail networks improved modestly to 2.1 from 1.9, with Tanzania leading following the commencement of Standard Gauge Railway freight operations between Dar es Salaam and Dodoma in June 2025.
The infrastructure gains were partially offset by climate risk. “We have to look at climate change in a preventive way,” a representative from Zambia’s Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry warned. “We have to start by looking at how to build more resilient infrastructure to the adversities that may come in the future.” Across the ten markets, 38% of businesses reported shifts in customer behaviour linked to extreme weather, and 32% cited direct productivity losses. A Tanzanian Ministry of Finance official was direct: “Climate change-induced drought has negatively impacted agricultural production, input costs, and overall profitability this year.”
Infrastructure investment itself contributed to short-term disruption. A representative from Dinapama Manufacturing & Supplies in Namibia offered a more optimistic longer view: “Our main challenge used to be water shortages, but the supply has become more stable. The municipality now responds faster to faults.”
Asia Overtakes Africa as the Preferred Trading Partner
A decisive shift in trading preferences emerged as the survey’s most striking commercial finding. Asian countries became the most preferred trading partners for 35% of surveyed businesses — up sharply from 24% in August 2024 — displacing African countries, which fell to 32% from 37%.
China consolidated its dominance. It remained the primary source of inputs for 36% of all importers and the destination for 67% of businesses buying finished goods from traders located within China. Tanzania’s importers drove the sharpest increase, with 53% citing China as their main source — a 10-percentage-point rise — as major infrastructure projects, including the Standard Gauge Railway expansion, generated sustained demand for heavy machinery and construction equipment. Philip Myburgh, Standard Bank’s Group Head of Trade, Business and Commercial Banking, noted that “businesses are diversifying supplier networks, expanding export destinations and leveraging emerging trade corridors” — a pattern visible most clearly in the accelerating pivot toward Asia.
The Middle East gained ground as well, with 8% of importers citing the region as a source of inputs, up from 5%. South Africa (21%) and Zambia (16%) led that growth, driven by strengthened diplomatic ties and fuel-related procurement respectively.
North America remained the least preferred partner for 4% of surveyed businesses. High shipping costs (55%), elevated tariffs (45%) and currency volatility (28%) topped the list of deterrents. The tariff barrier deepened after the United States imposed levies ranging from 10% to 30% on African exports in 2025 — South Africa faced the highest rate at 30% — and the African Growth and Opportunity Act expired on 30 September 2025, ending duty-free access to the US market for 32 eligible sub-Saharan nations.
Despite Asia’s rise, intra-African trade showed genuine momentum. Exports to East Africa surged by 10 percentage points year-on-year, partly reflecting Kenya and Uganda’s landmark August 2025 agreement to reclassify bilateral trade as transfers rather than imports. A representative from a multilateral organisation in Mozambique put the commercial logic plainly: “Duty-free exports have been a key benefit for trade since removing these costs has significantly increased demand and market reach.” Awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area rose to 50% from 45%, with Namibia completing its first AfCFTA shipment — 45,000 tonnes of salt to Nigeria — in June 2025.
A representative from the Kenyan Ministry of Trade pointed to the policy framework underpinning the optimism: “The government is fundamentally committed to enhancing the trade ecosystem, evidenced by targeted improvements in key policies, such as the strategic decision to reduce certain taxes and forge strong partnerships with foreign nations. These government initiatives streamline cumbersome regulatory and border procedures across Africa to create a larger, smoother market for Kenyan exports.”
Digital Payments Become Infrastructure, Not Convenience
Digital payment methods now facilitate 78% of cross-border sales and 79% of cross-border purchases, cementing their role as essential commercial infrastructure rather than a value-added option. Electronic funds transfers and international transfers together account for 55% and 57% of cross-border sales and purchases respectively.
The transformation was most pronounced in Mozambique, where cash’s share of cross-border sales collapsed from 16% to 6% in a single survey cycle. The Bank of Mozambique’s 2025 modernisation of its National Payment System — which enforced seamless interoperability between mobile money providers and commercial banks — provided the structural foundation. The SIMORede network’s expansion enabled real-time international wallet-to-account transfers, and the certification of Visa Transfer Money in 2025 further accelerated adoption. The Tanzania Revenue Authority pointed to the systemic shift: “There is a visible growth trend in international business as a result of supportive trade policies and enabling systems. Our systems are now easy to access and use because they are integrated.”
Continentally, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System reached a significant milestone in 2025, integrating with national payment switches to facilitate cross-border settlement in local currencies. Regulatory passporting rights in West and Central Africa — granted through the WAEMU and CEMAC monetary unions — allowed fintechs to operate across multiple borders under a single licence, lowering costs for informal traders and small enterprises.
Cash remains dominant for domestic transactions, accounting for 38% of domestic sales across the ten markets. Kenya and South Africa led the shift away from cash, each recording an 8-percentage-point decline in domestic cash sales, driven by QR-code interoperability and the maturation of mobile money ecosystems.
Access to credit improved, with the average index score rising to 49 from 43. Kenya recorded the sharpest improvement — its score reached 56 — after the Central Bank of Kenya reduced the benchmark rate from 10.75% to 9.25% between February and October 2025, pulling commercial lending rates down from a peak of 17.2% to 15.1%.
Taxation Remains the Defining Constraint
Despite improvements in infrastructure, government support and financial access, corporate taxation remained the dominant obstacle to cross-border trade. Across all ten markets, 79% of surveyed businesses identified tax relief as their top priority for government action, a figure that has barely shifted across survey iterations.
The tension is structural, and African governments are aware of it. A representative from Tanzania’s Ministry of Finance framed the dilemma candidly: “The tension between maintaining high taxes and supporting business growth exists because while the government theoretically wishes to lower corporate income tax from 30% to a more competitive rate of 20%, they are hesitant to do so because of the urgent need to mobilise domestic revenue to build infrastructure like roads. Without these stretching taxes, the development projects that businesses rely on would not exist.”
Yet the same ministry acknowledged the cost. Tanzania’s 2025 Finance Act doubled the Alternative Minimum Tax on turnover to 1% and introduced a 10% withholding tax on undistributed profits, prompting 85% of Tanzanian businesses to rank tax cuts as their primary demand of government. A representative from the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment captured the burden businesses carry in the interim: “Businesses rely mostly on government measures to mitigate the effects of climate change” — pointing to a deeper dependency dynamic in which the private sector waits on the state to resolve structural risks it cannot individually absorb.
Outlook: Optimism With Conditions Attached
The 2025 survey captures an African trade environment in genuine, if fragile, transition. Business confidence has recovered, infrastructure has improved materially, digital financial systems are deepening rapidly, and regional integration is beginning to translate rhetoric into actual trade flows.
The conditions attached to that optimism are equally real. High taxation constrains the businesses governments need to grow. Climate disruption threatens the infrastructure those governments are building. The gap between Mozambique’s quantitative rankings and its on-the-ground business sentiment illustrates how easily headline metrics can obscure structural dysfunction.
Whether the momentum documented in Issue 5 compounds or corrodes will depend, above all, on whether African governments can strike the balance between revenue mobilisation and private-sector competitiveness and do so before the next weather event, tariff shock or liquidity crisis forces them to choose between the two. Standard Bank’s Philip Myburgh struck a note of measured conviction in framing the bank’s own commitment to the continent: “We are committed to supporting that transformation.”
The Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer Issue 5 surveyed 2,218 businesses across Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia between September and October 2025. The ten markets represent 68% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP.
