Kenya will experience near‑average to above‑average rainfall in several key regions during the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 “Long Rains” season, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast.
KMD released the forecast during the Twelfth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF‑12) in Nairobi under the theme “From Crisis Response to Climate Preparedness – Inclusive Early Warning Services for All.”
Main Rainfall Season: What to Expect
The March–May period marks Kenya’s primary rainfall season, which typically delivers the bulk of annual precipitation. Areas that usually record the highest totals—often exceeding 300 millimetres—include the Lake Victoria Basin, the central and southern Rift Valley, the highlands on both sides of the Rift Valley, and the Coastal Strip.
KMD forecasts near‑average rainfall with a tendency toward above‑average amounts over western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and the central highlands. These regions will also experience occasional heavy rainfall events.
- The Highlands west of the Rift Valley and Lake Victoria Basin (Nandi, Kakamega, Kisumu, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Narok) will receive near‑average to above‑average rainfall, with heavy downpours at times.
- The Highlands east of the Rift Valley (Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Nairobi) will experience similar conditions.
- North‑western counties (Turkana, Samburu) will record near‑average to above‑average rainfall.
- North‑eastern counties (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo) will receive near‑average to below‑average rainfall.
- The South‑eastern lowlands (Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, inland Tana River) will see near‑average to below‑average rainfall.
- Coastal counties will record below‑average rainfall overall, though isolated heavy showers may occur.
KMD noted that the season will likely begin normally or later than usual, with intermittent dry spells. The rains will peak in April across most regions, except along the Coast, where maximum rainfall will occur in May.
Agricultural Impacts: Opportunities and Risks
Julius Konga from the State Department of Agriculture highlighted the dual impacts of rainfall variability. “The growing season will be extended because of the increased moisture, allowing multiple cropping and better yields. Water points will be recharged, and soils will hold enough moisture for plant growth and nutrient uptake,” he said.
Regions that receive above‑average rainfall will enjoy better yields, crop diversification, and improved food security. However, excess rainfall will also trigger flooding, soil erosion, crop spoilage, and infrastructure damage.
Areas that record below‑average rainfall will face reduced crop yields, declining incomes, resource conflicts, and migration pressures.
Heat Waves: A Parallel Climate Challenge
Kenya also faces rising heat wave threats. For the first time, KMD has set city‑specific thresholds:
- Nairobi: 32°C or higher for three consecutive days.
- Kisumu: 37°C or higher.
- Mombasa: 36°C or higher.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that heat waves intensify risks beyond health—triggering drought, agricultural losses, wildfires, and power shortages.
Regional Climate Context
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) projects wetter‑than‑normal conditions across much of East Africa, alongside warmer‑than‑average temperatures in Kenya and neighboring countries.
Dr. Abdi Fidar, ICPAC Director, emphasized: “GHACOF remains a critical regional platform for building consensus on climate risks and translating seasonal forecasts into early action that protects lives, livelihoods, and development across the Greater Horn of Africa.”
