Kenya’s economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, up from 4.2% in the same period of 2024, even as the country’s external trade deficit widened sharply.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) show that growth was driven by agriculture, construction, and mining, while imports surged from Asia, straining foreign‑exchange reserves.
Agriculture, Construction and Mining Lead Growth
The agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector expanded by 3.2%, reinforcing its role as a key driver of Kenya’s economy. The construction sector rebounded strongly, swinging from a 2.6% contraction in Q3 2024 to 6.7% growth in Q3 2025.
The mining and quarrying sector also recovered, expanding by 16.6% after a steep contraction the previous year. Other sectors posting notable gains included:
- Accommodation & Food Services (+17.7%)
- Real Estate (+5.7%)
- Financial & Insurance Activities (+5.4%)
- Transport & Storage (+5.2%)
- Public Administration (+5.1%)
- Wholesale & Retail Trade (+4.8%)
- Information & Communication (+4.5%)
Exports Rise, Driven by African Markets
Kenya’s exports rose 2.5% to KSh 289.4 billion, largely supported by African markets, which accounted for 44.6% of total export earnings. Shipments to the Democratic Republic of Congo (+57.5%), Uganda (+34.5%), Egypt (+31.1%), and Rwanda (+10.9%) drove the increase.
KNBS noted, “This performance was primarily driven by higher re‑exports of jet fuel to the DRC, domestic exports of potatoes and petroleum products to Uganda, tea to Egypt, and premium motor spirit to Rwanda.”
Exports to Europe grew 5.2% to KSh 60.8 billion, buoyed by cut flowers and macadamia nuts. However, exports to Asia fell 14.2% to KSh 68.0 billion, reflecting weaker demand from the UAE, India, Pakistan, and Yemen. Exports to the Americas declined to KSh 24.4 billion, mainly due to reduced coffee sales to the U.S.
Imports Surge from Asia, Led by China
Asia remained Kenya’s dominant source of imports, accounting for 68.6% of total inflows. Imports from China rose to KSh 184.3 billion, while South Korea’s shipments tripled to KSh 16.7 billion.
The surge was driven by capital equipment, industrial machinery, iron and steel, and motor vehicles. Saudi Arabia and Malaysia also contributed to the import bill.
Trade Deficit Widens Sharply
Kenya’s trade deficit widened to KSh 135.3 billion, more than triple the KSh 43.5 billion recorded in Q3 2024. The merchandise trade deficit grew to KSh 355.8 billion, reflecting faster import growth (+KSh 82.7 billion) compared to exports (+KSh 48.0 billion).
The services sector, traditionally a stabiliser, offered less relief as its surplus fell to KSh 57.2 billion, down from KSh 100.6 billion a year earlier. Foreign‑exchange reserves dropped by KSh 63.7 billion, reversing last year’s accumulation.
AfCFTA and Regional Trade
The export gains to Africa highlight Kenya’s push for deeper intra‑African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Kenya ratified AfCFTA in 2018, signalling strong support, but rollout has been slow due to non‑tariff barriers and infrastructure challenges.
