Kenya’s inflation eased slightly in November 2025, with headline inflation recorded at 4.5% year-on-year (y/y) compared to 4.6% in October 2025.
Month-on-month (m/m), inflation stood at 0.2%, reflecting relative price stability across key consumer categories. The Central Bank of Kenya’s (CBK) target band of 2.5%–7.5% was maintained for the 29th consecutive month, underscoring sustained macroeconomic stability.
According to NCBA Research, “November headline inflation recorded a slight reduction of 11 basis points from 4.56% in October to 4.45%. Overall consumer price index had an uptick of 0.16% month-on-month to 147.08 in November.”
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Food inflation rose 7.7% y/y, down from 8.0% in October, driven by higher prices of onions (+4.9%), oranges (+2.9%), and kale/sukuma wiki (+2.7%). However, declines in fortified maize flour (-3.8%), sifted maize flour (-3.2%), tomatoes (-2.1%), sugar (-1.1%), and electricity tariffs helped moderate the index.
“This year-on-year drop is attributed to a slower increase in food and beverage prices by 30 basis points to 7.7% from 8.0% previously.”
Transport
Transport costs increased 5.1% y/y, with a 0.4% m/m rise largely due to higher country bus/matatu fares (+9.1%). Petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged at Kshs 185.59 and Kshs 172.64 per litre, respectively.
“Transport costs increased over the month, with country bus fares up by 9.1% despite stagnation in petrol and diesel prices.”
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels
This category rose 1.9% y/y but recorded a 0.1% m/m decline due to lower electricity tariffs (50 kWh: -1.7%, 200 kWh: -1.5%). The decline was partially offset by higher firewood (+1.2%) and water charges (+0.6%).
Inflation Summary Table
| Broad Commodity Group | Price Change m/m | Price Change y/y | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 0.3% | 7.7% | Onions, oranges, kale ↑; maize flour, tomatoes, sugar ↓ |
| Transport | 0.4% | 5.1% | Bus/matatu fares ↑; fuel stable |
| Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Fuels | -0.1% | 1.9% | Electricity ↓; firewood & water ↑ |
| Overall Inflation | 0.2% | 4.5% | Driven mainly by transport |
Core Inflation & Economic Activity
Core inflation fell to 2.3%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. NCBA cautioned that this trend “indicates possible weakness in economic activity so far.” The subdued demand-side pressures suggest slower growth momentum despite headline inflation stability.
Monetary & Currency Developments
- Central Bank Rate (CBR): Reduced to 9.25% from 9.50% in October, expected to stimulate credit uptake and expand money supply.
- Kenya Shilling: Marginally depreciated by 3.7 bps m/m against the US Dollar to Kshs 129.8, compared to Kshs 129.2 in October. Year-to-date depreciation stands at 39.7 bps.
- Exchange rate stability, combined with steady fuel prices, continues to anchor inflation expectations within CBK’s preferred band.
Outlook
Looking ahead, NCBA warns of potential upward pressure on vegetable prices due to delayed short rains and below-average rainfall across Kenya and Uganda. On the global front, Brent crude oil is forecast at ~$60 per barrel, which should help stabilise commodity prices internationally.
NCBA concludes, “We expect inflation to remain around the midpoint of the target by the close of the year.”
